Bridging the gap between what companies measure and what they need to decide. Rigorous energy systems modelling translated into clear, asset-level roadmaps.
Companies across transport, industry, and energy face an acute challenge: they have disclosed emissions, set net-zero targets, and satisfied reporting frameworks — yet still lack the detailed, asset-level roadmaps that turn those commitments into investment decisions.
The tools used to measure emissions (GHG Protocol, SBTi) are not designed to answer operational questions: which technology to adopt, when to invest, what the financial exposure looks like under different regulatory scenarios.
That is precisely where Transition Modelling Lab operates — between the accountant and the CFO, between the sustainability report and the capex committee.
Every engagement is tailored. We work at the intersection of energy modelling, technology economics, and financial decision-making — adapting depth and scope to your priorities.
Establish your emissions baseline, build scenario-based decarbonisation trajectories, and understand the technology mix implications of different ambition levels — fleet, site, or corporate-wide.
Translate decarbonisation pathways into prioritised investment roadmaps: technology viability by segment, capex and opex profiles, uncertainty analysis, and marginal abatement cost curves.
Asset-level and portfolio transition risk assessment for financial institutions and development banks — linking energy system scenarios to credit exposure, stranded asset risk, and investment strategy.
We use open, reproducible energy systems frameworks — OSeMOSYS, PyPSA, TIMES — adapted to the operational realities of each client. The output is not just a report; it is a decision tool.
Every engagement is tailored. We work at the intersection of energy modelling, technology economics, climate policies, and financial decision-making — adapting depth and scope to your priorities.
Emission inventory from activity data, technology characterisation, and reference scenario construction. Identifies the gap between current trajectory and climate-aligned pathways.
Multi-technology comparison across operational segments using energy optimisation models. Evaluates viability, cost, and emission performance under multiple scenarios.
Translation of physical pathways into capex/opex profiles, investment sequencing, and marginal abatement cost curves. Uncertainty ranges around energy prices, technology costs, and regulation.
Prioritised, actionable recommendations: what to invest in, where, and when — with the analytical backing to present to boards, investors, and regulators.
Our founder, Baltazar Solano Rodríguez, has spent over 20 years building, applying, and leading energy systems modelling at the intersection of policy, finance, and corporate strategy. This is not advisory built on frameworks alone — it is grounded in methodology developed at UCL, applied to live government decisions, and tested with financial institutions managing real transition risk.
TIMES-based modelling of Mexico's energy system for the Ministry of Energy in collaboration with UNAM — underpinning the national NDC update.
Asset-level modelling of oil production and fiscal revenue implications under climate scenarios across Latin America and the Caribbean, leading the Inter-American Development Bank to update their oil and gas investment strategy in the region.
Assessed carbon intensity metrics and their implications for transition risk, asset stranding, and investment decision-making in the oil and gas sector, combining sector review with quantitative modelling.
Sectoral transition risk modelling for BlackRock — enhancing capability to assess climate-related risks across asset classes and geographies.
LEAP-based modelling for Panama's NDC. Core contributor to Climate Action Tracker and National Pathways Explorer — benchmarking global climate action.
National and regional energy system models for climate policy — UK MARKAL modelling for the 4th Carbon Budget and TIMES model development to assess EU climate policies.
Whether you are a company mapping your first decarbonisation pathway, an investor assessing transition risk, or an institution shaping national climate policy — we can help you go from measurement to decision.